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The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Summit, held in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, examined economic conditions, customer behavior, market data, project spending and sales channels. Presentations cited 22% of homeowners using AI for renovation and forecast 2.5% growth in home improvement product sales in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, consumer behavior and artificial intelligence’s role in renovation decisions. Presentations pointed to a mixed outlook: HIRI forecast 2.5% growth in home improvement product sales in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
Summit sessions addressed five areas affecting the industry: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. The opening session featured Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, the National Association of Home Builders’ assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, who discussed inflation and other economic factors affecting homebuilding and homebuying.
Nanayakkara-Skillington cited a change in the median age of first-time homebuyers: 40 in 2026, compared with 29 in 1981. Other speakers, including HIRI’s Dave King, OpenBrand chief economist Ralph McLaughlin and S&P Global director Michael Zdinak, discussed how affordability, mortgage rates and income are shaping buyers’ circumstances. The source report does not provide further figures from those presentations.
Research presented at the event also addressed contractors and AI. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, shared results from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026. The report said contractors’ confidence in getting business in the next six months scored 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman said Houzz’s 2026 research found 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation, while households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars.
How Inflation Changes the Outlook
The summit’s forecast shows why headline sales growth alone may not describe the market homeowners and businesses are experiencing. HIRI projected 2.5% growth in current-dollar sales for 2026, while estimating the market would shrink 1.5% after inflation. The two figures use different measures: nominal growth does not account for changing prices, while the inflation-adjusted estimate does.
That split matters to manufacturers, retailers and contractors making plans for the coming year. The discussions connected consumer demand to housing affordability, borrowing costs and household income, while the contractor index offered a separate measure of business expectations. The findings suggest a market where projected sales growth and real purchasing conditions may not move in the same direction.
AI use is another signal for businesses tracking how customers research and plan projects. The Houzz figures describe both the share of homeowners using AI and the share of renovation spending associated with those households. They do not establish that AI caused higher spending or changed purchase outcomes, but they indicate that AI is part of the customer research and recommendation landscape discussed at the summit.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
The Home Improvement Research Institute convened the event as a forum for industry professionals to review data and discuss forces affecting the home improvement market. Its agenda grouped the discussion around economic conditions, customer decision-making and market research, as well as project expenditure and the channels through which products are sold.
Beyond economic presentations and research results, the program included a discussion with Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, about keeping the brand relevant. According to the recap, O’Connor described an approach built on educating audiences first, being accurate and avoiding a transactional tone. HIRI president Dave King also pointed attendees to the institute’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast, which supplied the market projections presented at the event.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
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Limits of the Summit Findings
The available recap does not provide the full methodology, sample sizes or question wording behind the Houzz AI figures or the contractor confidence score. It also does not state how the 8.2 rating compares with earlier index readings, so it should be treated as a reported score rather than evidence of a rise or fall in confidence.
The market forecast is an estimate, not a final accounting of 2026 sales. The recap does not give the full assumptions behind HIRI’s forecast, detail the inflation measure used, or specify how the outlook may vary across product categories and sales channels. It also does not show whether AI use is associated with more spending because of AI or reflects differences among households that already undertake renovations.
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The Next Quarter and 2027 Outlook
King’s message to manufacturers was to reduce uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter. The summit recap does not identify a specific follow-up event or release date for new research. Businesses will be able to compare the outlook with later market and sentiment data as those become available.
For readers tracking the sector, the next useful checkpoints are updates to HIRI’s market forecast, additional contractor sentiment readings and new research on how homeowners use AI while planning projects. The summit’s presentations provide a snapshot of conditions and expectations at the end of September 2026; whether those expectations hold through the rest of the year remains to be seen.
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Key Questions
What was the HIRI 2026 Summit?
It was a Sept. 29-30, 2026, gathering in Minneapolis where home improvement professionals discussed market data, economic factors, consumer behavior, project spending and sales channels.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market?
HIRI’s Q3 2026 report forecast 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026 and a 1.5% contraction after inflation. These are forecasts, not final reported results.
How many homeowners use AI for renovation, according to the presentation?
Houzz’s 2026 research, as presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation. The recap also said households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars; it does not show that AI caused that spending.
What did the contractor confidence score measure?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 recorded 8.2 out of 10 for contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months. The recap does not provide a comparison with previous readings.
What remains unknown about the findings?
The recap does not include the research methodologies, sample sizes or detailed assumptions behind several figures. The 2026 market numbers are projections, and more data will be needed to see how actual sales, contractor sentiment and AI use develop.
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